This virus!

[onthemake]

How are people feeling about this coronavirus outbreak where you live?

I grew up in the UK and always thought I'd watch these things from afar on the news. Now live in Japan and run a business in Nara where it's just popped up. Have to take the train with loads of Chinese tourists everyday this week I've become one of those masked individuals I always used to watch on TV!

[Críoch]

haha @ the mask. I'd team that up with a pair of strong rubber gloves - just in case.

There are chinese people everywhere nowadays. It'll spread like fuck yet.

[onthemake]

Haha the wife is actually ordering gloves tomorrow with our doomsday supplies in case the shit hits the fan. Gonna hole ourselves up in our house on the mountain away from the zombie hoards down below is in Osaka.

[Belka]

if its not evolving its pretty harmless, most people who are infected not even show any symptoms, the death count is super low and only hits the peeps with a pretty weak immune system. Our yearly german Influenca kills over 20.000 people, 2016 was around 30.000. Actually this Virus is a "joke", its just spreading very fast.

[Lost to the Void]

My missus works in China quite a lot, she works for a giant corporation who have interests all over the world.
She is due to go to China soonish and is getting regular reports from China on the situation via work.

It doesn't look good. The government has extended the national holiday to prevent people moving around.
The virus has hit at the worst possible time. Chinese New year is a national holiday, EVERYBODY goes back to their home town, so the whole country is moving around.
The whole area of origin had basically been quarantined, and the government is underplaying everything in the media, as their reports don't really with reports from feet on the ground.

The main issue is that this is a new virus, a new strain, so no one really knows where this is going.


I've seen way too many sci fi films about this shit.

Living in London, we will probably see it here first.

My worry level is just about above normal, bearing in mind that London is on a constant anti terror alert anyway.

[Críoch]

That's interesting about extending the national holiday. Was wondering about that tbh.. thinking it would all kick off when the homeward journey begins.

Hopefully it'll be enough. Quarantine is the only control that works.

[jordanneke]

I first thought 'Oh, not another gear thread'....

But I'm not too worried. I don't have any proof as yet, but I think the reason we are detecting new viruses is that we are much better at detecting viruses, rather than some book of revalation shit.

Plus, not too many people have died as someone already said. MERS had a 60% kill rate or something crazy. This seems like 3% or something less.

But yeah, I'm not in Japan.

[Críoch]

Re:The Virus..

I've got a couple of German cousins. They were over visiting last week.

In Ireland.. colds & flus are often referred to as 'a bug' or 'bugs'.

My mother & I were talking about having bugs / being sick at this time of year etc..

The 2 Germans had to double check. They thought we had some kind of personal insect infestation

[chava]

I first thought 'Oh, not another gear thread'....

But I'm not too worried. I don't have any proof as yet, but I think the reason we are detecting new viruses is that we are much better at detecting viruses, rather than some book of revalation shit.

Plus, not too many people have died as someone already said. MERS had a 60% kill rate or something crazy. This seems like 3% or something less.

But yeah, I'm not in Japan.

Only Ebola reaches a killrate appraching 50%. But this ones seems pretty infectious, and not everything is known yet, this being China and all. It is not the end of the world, but it doesn't look good. We'll probably see more of this sort in the current century.

[jordanneke]

Yah, read the wrong stat.

35%
The overall case-fatality rate of MERS-CoV infection is 35%, but the mortality rate of mechanically ventilated patients reaches 60% to 70% (

[Lost to the Void]

Missus just got the news that BA have cancelled all flights to China until march. Cathay Pacific are following suit.
I would imagine other airlines will follow.

Her company won't fly anyone out there or out of there due to the risk alert being way too high.

Interesting. Did they do this when the SARS outbreak happened?

[Belka]

Missus just got the news that BA have cancelled all flights to China until march. Cathay Pacific are following suit.
I would imagine other airlines will follow.

Her company won't fly anyone out there or out of there due to the risk alert being way too high.

Interesting. Did they do this when the SARS outbreak happened?

Nope they didnt, german health minister praised the chinese goverment for their open behavior in this case

[jordanneke]

Missus just got the news that BA have cancelled all flights to China until march. Cathay Pacific are following suit.
I would imagine other airlines will follow.

Her company won't fly anyone out there or out of there due to the risk alert being way too high.

Interesting. Did they do this when the SARS outbreak happened?

Was the Chinese economy in need of foreign investment much when SARS was about?

[Root]

I guess my virus B isn't from china (at least I hope so).

[Mslwte]

What are the symptoms for this virus? I'm definitely coming down with something at the moment.

[Críoch]

Anyone know anyone that's got this yet?

Looking for a good review

Was in the city at the weekend & I have to say, I was extra wary of touching handles & stuff. Fucking horrible.

[Ben Kohonays]

I was reading something the other day and apparently in the same time this coronavirus has been in the news there have been 2000 deaths from flu just in the US. But that's not newsworthy.

[buffered]

Her company won't fly anyone out there or out of there due to the risk alert being way too high.

Interesting. Did they do this when the SARS outbreak happened?

Yes. These are actions used in response and learning from the past. Initially they found the province and shut down all access. Then realised incubation period and initiated quarantine worldwide. As there is a window of almost invisible symptoms for two weeks, measures have blown out to impact the whole country as this time of year is peak travel due to new year. People visiting family from abroad and other provinces. Measures are more calculated and drastic now because of past experience.
Big problem here is that trade has virtually shut down. Coupled with chinese new year, this halt is an incredible blow to working people in china and their supply chain globally.

[henry1]

Haha the wife is actually ordering gloves tomorrow with our doomsday supplies in case the shit hits the fan. Gonna hole ourselves up in our house on the mountain away from the zombie hoards down below is in Osaka.

Japan is awesome.

Had one of the best holidays there since a long time.
Going on holiday to a country with an unfamiliar alphabet was daunting, beyond that though was just bliss.
Especially in December, the weather is just right at around 11 Celcius.
I went Osaka and Tokyo, literally eating every other hour.
I loved it, kids loved it, it was Takoyaki mayhem.

Japanese Whisky every night, mostly Hibiki.
Yamazaki is a bit hard to find these days.

But yeah, airport was mostly occupied by people from the Mainland.

[Trom]

I was reading something the other day and apparently in the same time this coronavirus has been in the news there have been 2000 deaths from flu just in the US. But that's not newsworthy.

I agree that things like this virus get blown up in media, and that a little context is always good before freaking out. But the flu, while being more deadly than most people intuit, is mostly understood and controlled.

This virus we really don't know too much about yet. Sure, numbers are relatively low, but I wouldn't trust China for one second on this. Just yesterday almost 15000 new cases were reported in the Hubei province, taking us back to upward trending number of infected. While I don't think we have a serious pandemic on our hands, we simply don't know the extent yet.

Xi Jinping is faced with a very difficult dilemma. On one hand the shut downs and quarantines puts a lot of friction in the economy. For every day factories ect are shut and normal consumption is halted, lots and lots of companies get their cash flow severely interrupted, meaning things like mortgage payments will be affected. Add in all the foreign companies that have their supply chain in the affected areas and the ripple effect it has on their cash flows.
You might think that these small numbers don't make much difference, but have a look at the total indebtedness of the global economy, especially the Chinese and European banking system which is in a very vulnerable position. A lack of expected income, even for a few months, can be detrimental for certain banks. This virus might just be the thing that reveals how the emperor has no clothes. So the Chinese has every incentive to downplay and lie about the severity of this virus, as well as pushing for business to get back to usual ASAP!

On the other hand, if business do get back to usual before the virus is properly contained, the consequences would be dire. A second wave outbreak would cause all the same negative consequences listed above multiplied by some factor.

So China is facing a really difficult situation here and they need to get their timing exactly right for this to not have risks of serious ripple effects. And that is true even if the virus is way less deadly than your average flu.